A bet
I made a bet tonight with Rob, a friend I met through Aram Kudurshian. He is from Canada, and we were talking about gay marriage there. I asserted that it would be at least 20 years before gay marriage was legal in the US at a federal level. (Canada did it piecemeal as well, with some provinces recognizing it and others not, before there was a federal allowance several years ago.) Rob disagreed, and said that it would be legal in the US within 5 years.
This strikes me as incredibly unrealistic. Sure, the Neocons are on the wane, politically. But I am not expecting gay marriage to be part of a party plank or a presidential race for at least another 8-12 years. The culture warriors are very entrenched and skilled movers, by now. They’re not going to give up. And 36%, isn’t going to change overnight. To be frank, I think a lot of people are going to have to die and be replaced by young people who haven’t been brainwashed.
So here was the bet:
“On 19 April 2012, gay marriage will be legal in the United States either by (a) passage of a bill in the Congress that is subsequently signed by the president, or (b) a Supreme Court decision that may or may not have been fully implemented yet.” If this is true, I will buy Rob dinner at Chou Chou. If not, he’ll buy dinner for me.
I must say, I certainly hope he’s right and I’m proven to be an un-Pollyanna. But with Scalia, Thomas, Roberts and Alito on the Court, I don’t think he’s getting any help that way.
Only time will tell.