A bet
I made a bet tonight with Rob, a friend I met through Aram Kudurshian. He is from Canada, and we were talking about gay marriage there. I asserted that it would be at least 20 years before gay marriage was legal in the US at a federal level. (Canada did it piecemeal as well, with some provinces recognizing it and others not, before there was a federal allowance several years ago.) Rob disagreed, and said that it would be legal in the US within 5 years.
This strikes me as incredibly unrealistic. Sure, the Neocons are on the wane, politically. But I am not expecting gay marriage to be part of a party plank or a presidential race for at least another 8-12 years. The culture warriors are very entrenched and skilled movers, by now. They’re not going to give up. And 36%, isn’t going to change overnight. To be frank, I think a lot of people are going to have to die and be replaced by young people who haven’t been brainwashed.
So here was the bet:
“On 19 April 2012, gay marriage will be legal in the United States either by (a) passage of a bill in the Congress that is subsequently signed by the president, or (b) a Supreme Court decision that may or may not have been fully implemented yet.” If this is true, I will buy Rob dinner at Chou Chou. If not, he’ll buy dinner for me.
I must say, I certainly hope he’s right and I’m proven to be an un-Pollyanna. But with Scalia, Thomas, Roberts and Alito on the Court, I don’t think he’s getting any help that way.
Only time will tell.
julian Said,
April 20, 2007 @ 11:07
Stakes are pretty low. For a bet that takes five years you guys should be betting like $1000 worth of something. Otherwise it’s just “yawn”. =P
julian Said,
April 20, 2007 @ 11:08
Also, you definitely will win this bet, so you should be trying to get more out of it.
You guys need to get out of California sometime. ;)
Gordon Said,
April 21, 2007 @ 12:48
Sounds like the bet within the bet is that Chou Chou is going to be around in 2012. :-)
Philippe Bernard Said,
May 4, 2007 @ 00:14
hey, that picture is 5 years old! he’s only 3 years younger than me. and i’m not actually into him, anyway. he just happens to be the star of a show i like, mr. take-things-the-wrong-way. =P
danblim Said,
May 5, 2007 @ 11:51
It’s gonna happen gradually, and sooner if people start reframing the debate to reflect equal rights and benefits rather than marriage which has all these religious overtones. 5 years is too soon, especially with the presidential race up in the air, but in 20 I would be surprised not to find some progress at least.